From July 2023 through summer 2024, battery cell pricing is expected to plummet by more than 60% due to a surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption and grid expansion in China and the United States.
How much does a battery cost in 2022?
In 2022, the estimated average battery price stood at about USD 150 per kWh, with the cost of pack manufacturing accounting for about 20% of total battery cost, compared to more than 30% a decade earlier. Pack production costs have continued to decrease over time, down 5% in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Given this, BNEF expects average battery pack prices to drop again next year, reaching $133/kWh (in real 2023 dollars). Technological innovation and manufacturing improvement should drive further declines in battery pack prices in the coming years, to $113/kWh in 2025 and $80/kWh in 2030.
How has battery quality changed over the past 30 years?
As volumes increased, battery costs plummeted and energy density — a key metric of a battery's quality — rose steadily. Over the past 30 years, battery costs have fallen by a dramatic 99 percent; meanwhile, the density of top-tier cells has risen fivefold.
How fast are battery sales growing?
For thirty years, sales have been doubling every two to three years, enjoying a 33 percent average growth rate. In the past decade, as electric cars have taken off, it has been closer to 40 percent. Exhibit 1: Global battery sales by sector, GWh/y
Are battery cell prices falling?
We are in the midst of a year-long acceleration in the decline of battery cell prices, a trend that is reminiscent of recent solar cell price reductions. Since last summer, lithium battery cell pricing has plummeted by approximately 50%, according to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL), the world's largest battery manufacturer.
Will battery demand grow in 2024?
The finance group revised its global battery demand growth projection to 29% for 2024, down from the previous estimate of 35%, with a 31% growth expected in 2023. Goldman also forecasts a 40% reduction in battery pack prices over 2023 and 2024, followed by a continued decline to reach a total 50% reduction by 2025-2026.